Do genetically informed distribution models improve range predictions in past climates? A case study with balsam poplar

Species distribution models (SDMs) are one of the most widely used approaches to predict changes in habitat suitability response climate change. However, as typically implemented, SDMs treat species genetically uniform throughout their ranges and thereby ignore potentially important genetic differences between populations. While numerous studies have model based subgroupings within species, ability such be transferred new times has rarely been evaluated. Here, we standard informed (gSDMs) future past range balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera L.). We then assessed transferability gSDMs using fossil pollen macrofossil occurrences. In general, performed similarly through time, with both predicting a northward expanding from refugia glaciers receded over 22 ky BP declining suitable area climates. Both showed moderate abilities distinguish fossils pseudo-absences but tended lower at sites during Pleistocene-Holocene transition. Although applied did not prove more transferable than SDMs, they provided unique insights, change clusters time potential refugial locations. argue research is needed determine which may benefit gSDM approach test temporally or spatially independent occurrences, often recommended for SDMs.